The Open Championship 2026 Betting Preview

The Claret Jug returns to Southport.

Royal Birkdale last handed it to Jordan Spieth in 2017, when the Texan emerged from what became one of the most extraordinary final-round shotmaking performances in Open Championship history. Nine years later the links is back on the rota, expanded, refined, and ready to punish golfers who attempt to overpower it, and the field includes the defending champion, the player who just won this year's Masters to complete a Career Grand Slam, and the local boy from Southport who has been walking these fairways since before he was on any tour.

Scottie Scheffler defends. Rory McIlroy charges. Tommy Fleetwood comes home. And the question for every bettor at Duelbits Golf is whether Scheffler's missed cut at the Scottish Open last week signals a chink in the armour, or simply a blip from the most consistent golfer on earth in a week that didn't matter.

All odds from Duelbits Sportsbook, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Tournament Details

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Royal Birkdale: Understanding the Course

The Open Championship has been played on seaside links courses since 1860. Royal Birkdale, sitting between the dunes and the Irish Sea coastline at Southport, represents the format at its most authentic.

Royal Birkdale's fairway bunkers are positioned exactly where golfers want to land their tee shots, removing the distance premium that dominates most PGA Tour events and replacing it with a choice: lay up short of the bunker (which reduces approach distance) or carry it (which requires precise club selection and ball flight). The course is expected to play firm and fast, which means even a great ball striker such as Scheffler isn't going to be firing at every pin, naturally creating more conservative golf.

The course breakdown:

• Par 70, notably lower par than most links courses
• Four par 4s that are over 450 yards, three par 3s around the 200-yard mark
• Coastal wind from the Irish Sea creates variable conditions across morning and afternoon tee times
• Ball flights need to be kept low, high draws and fades that work on Tour tracks lose control in sea breeze
• While Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the pre-tournament odds, analyst picks favor Matt Fitzpatrick as a strong contender, citing his excellent form

Conditions Forecast

Little to no rain expected for the week. Firm and fast. Tom Kim provided a huge community win as he picked up his first victory in nearly three years at last week's Genesis Scottish Open, meaning the Scottish prep event has already been played and form data is current.

Firm and fast conditions at a links course mean:

• Ball runs through fairways, driver accuracy becomes critical
• Approach shots that pitch short and run need to be factored into yardage calculations
• Greens run faster and hold less, scrambling and short game around firm surfaces are premium skills
• Bump-and-run recovery shots from rough become viable where high lofted shots would skip over

What Statistical Profile Wins Here

The two biggest stars in golf are the top betting favorites. Heading into the final men's major of the year, defending Open champion Scottie Scheffler is still the favorite to win.

The key analytical statistics for Royal Birkdale:

• SG: Off-the-Tee (accuracy variant, not distance)
• SG: Approach - iron play in firm conditions
• SG: Around-the-Green - bump and run, chip from firm lies
• Driving accuracy - fairway bunker avoidance is the primary tee shot consideration
• Links experience - prior Open Championship and British links history

Full Contender Analysis

Scottie Scheffler - The Defending Champion (5.90)

Scheffler won last year's Open at Royal Portrush by four shots, finishing 17-under in dominant fashion. That victory gave him his first Claret Jug and another major title, reinforcing his status as the most reliable week-to-week player in the world.

Scheffler deserves favorite status because he is the defending champion and still owns the strongest complete profile in golf.

The single concern entering Royal Birkdale is the Scottish Open. Scheffler at +680 is the favorite, but it is worth noting he comes in off a missed cut at the Scottish Open and has looked shakier than usual this season. A missed cut at a tune-up event the week before a major is not unprecedented, many elite players deliberately rest rather than grind through a miss, but the timing creates a legitimate question.

The plus money is what makes this interesting, his biggest edge is consistency over 72 holes, not blitzing the opening round, and based on his season average, he would need to outperform by roughly 1.5 strokes.

No golfer has successfully defended the Open since Padraig Harrington in 2008, and the world number one has not had his sharpest year.

Verdict: The rational starting point at 5.90, but the Scottish Open miss and the historical absence of back-to-back Open champions since 2008 create legitimate reasons to seek each-way value elsewhere. Back on form, not on reputation.

Rory McIlroy - Career Grand Slam Complete, Claret Jug Next? (7.85)

McIlroy enters as the second choice and the most obvious alternative to Scheffler. He won the Masters earlier this season, completing the career Grand Slam, and arrives off a T7 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open after closing with a final-round 64.

McIlroy has become really good at playing smarter on the links than he was earlier in his career. Whether it's a driver, 3-wood or a long iron off the tee, McIlroy is giving himself good angles to work into the green. There are four par 4s that are over 450 yards, three par 3s around the 200-yard mark, and Rory is one of the best long iron players in the field.

The form case is compelling: He is second from tee-to-green, excellent around the greens and coming off a T7 at the Scottish Open despite losing strokes on approach. McIlroy's ceiling is simply higher than everyone else's.

McIlroy won the 2014 Open Championship at Hoyal Hoylake. He has the length, creativity and shot-making to handle Birkdale, but the question is whether he can avoid one loose stretch that has cost him in several recent majors.

At 7.85 on Duelbits, equivalent to approximately +685, McIlroy is the strongest each-way selection in the field. A player who has won the Masters this year, has links pedigree from his 2014 Claret Jug, and is arriving in career Grand Slam-completing form.

Verdict: Our primary selection. McIlroy at 7.85 represents the best combination of talent, form, and course-specific pedigree in the market.

Tommy Fleetwood - The Southport Native (14.50)

The storyline writes itself, and that's not always a good thing for betting, when narratives inflate prices, the value disappears. But Tommy Fleetwood's connection to Royal Birkdale is not just a storyline.

Tommy Fleetwood, who grew up near Open host Royal Birkdale, ended up T13 at the Scottish Open and is one of the few players who genuinely knows these links from childhood.

Fleetwood has one of the strongest storylines in the field. He is from Southport, Royal Birkdale is his hometown Open venue, and he is still chasing his first major championship after multiple close calls in Grand Slam events.

The analytical concern: The model has found better values on the board. Fleetwood has a pair of top-5 finishes at the Open Championship, but also missed the cut in 2024 and finished outside the top 10 last year. He finished 27th the last time this event was at the Royal Birkdale.

Twenty-seventh the last time it was here is the counter-narrative that any Fleetwood backer must address. Home course knowledge does not automatically convert to performance, the specific demands of a Par 70 links in major championship conditions test emotional management as much as technical skill.

At 14.50 on Duelbits, the crowd factor, links ability, and emotional investment make this a compelling each-way selection. The counterargument is that his Birkdale history actually doesn't support his price.

Verdict: Each-way at 14.50. Romantic but analytically supported by his links game. A top-5 without the win is the most likely positive outcome.

Matt Fitzpatrick - Form Player, English Contender (~17.00)

Matt Fitzpatrick has won three times on tour this year and is coming off a T3 finish at the Scottish Open. At +1850 odds, it's a good bet. Royal Birkdale's firm conditions, plus Fitzpatrick's game, and the final major of the season make the perfect fit.

Three wins in 2026 and a T3 at the final links tune-up event is the most directly relevant form line in the entire field. Fitzpatrick won the US Open at Brookline, a brutally difficult major in tough conditions that rewards the same precision iron play that Royal Birkdale demands.

Matt Barrie: Fitzpatrick has been a trendy major championship pick all year and has come up short. Royal Birkdale's firm conditions, plus Fitzpatrick's game, and the final major of the season, make the perfect fit.

Verdict: Our standout each-way value pick. Three 2026 wins, T3 at the Scottish Open, and a game profile that maps directly to what Birkdale demands at approximately 17.00.

Robert MacIntyre - Scotland's Links Specialist (~31.00)

MacIntyre has been guided by his iron play on the way to back-to-back top-10s at the Travelers Championship and the Genesis Scottish Open, ascending to first in SG: APP over his past eight rounds after leading the field at The Renaissance Club in this almighty metric. He's a perfect 6-for-6 in cuts made throughout his career at The Open Championship, highlighted by a trio of top-8 efforts.

MacIntyre also beat Scheffler in a playoff at the Travelers Championship, the most significant individual head-to-head victory of any contender entering this week. A Scottish player in form, leading SG: Approach over his last eight rounds, and with a perfect Open Championship cut record across his career: at approximately 31.00, this is the best statistical value in the extended market.

Verdict: Each-way at approximately 31.00. Statistical profile perfectly matches Birkdale requirements. Best value for a top-10/placement each-way bet outside the top tier.

Jordan Spieth - The 2017 Champion Returns (~61.00)

Jordan Spieth at +8000 is a live longshot given he won the last Open played at Royal Birkdale back in 2017.

Spieth's 2017 Birkdale performance remains one of the great Open Championship showings, a final round that included one of the most daring recovery shots in major history from a caravan park to the right of the 13th. At +6100-8000 across the market, the question is whether a player who won at this specific venue nine years ago carries a genuine advantage.

The honest analytical answer is: the course knowledge matters, but nine years is a long time. The You Name It, We Price It market offering Spieth & Cantlay Both To Make The Cut at 2.20 is a lower-stakes Spieth play that captures his cut-making ability without requiring a win.

Verdict: Tiny speculative each-way at ~61.00. The Spieth & Cantlay Both Make Cut special at 2.20 is the better Spieth-related bet.

Jon Rahm - The Birkdale Setup Player (15.20)

Rahm's game has historically suited links conditions: he keeps the ball low, uses the ground game, and has the physicality to handle wind conditions. He won the 2021 US Open and the 2023 Masters, major-winning pedigree.

At 15.20 on Duelbits, Rahm sits between Fleetwood and a cluster of American contenders at slightly longer prices. His setup suits Birkdale but his 2026 form has been less explosive than in his peak years.

Verdict: Each-way at 15.20. Solid inclusion in any Open Championship each-way portfolio.

Best Bets Summary

Bet on all Open Championship 2026 markets at Duelbits Golf.

For our complete golf betting coverage, see our US Open 2026 betting preview and our full How to Bet on Golf guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

When and where is The Open Championship 2026? Thursday July 16 – Sunday July 19 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, Southport, England. First tee times from 6:35am BST. Prize fund $17.75 million. Final major of the 2026 season.

Who is defending the Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler, won the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush by four shots (-17). He is at 5.90 on Duelbits, but comes off a rare missed cut at the Scottish Open.

What are the Open Championship 2026 odds on Duelbits? Scheffler 5.90, McIlroy 7.85, Fleetwood 14.50, Rahm 15.20. Full outright winner market with 30+ selections, plus head-to-head, top 5/10/20, and cut maker specials.

Has Royal Birkdale hosted the Open before? Yes, ten times. Most recently Jordan Spieth won in 2017. Previous champions include Tiger Woods (2006) and Tom Watson (1983).

Why is Tommy Fleetwood a major Open bet? He was born in Southport, adjacent to Royal Birkdale, and grew up playing these links. He's still chasing his maiden major and this is the closest the Open comes to being a home major for him.

What is the course setup like at Royal Birkdale 2026? Par 70, 7,223 yards, firm and fast (little rain forecast). Fairway bunkers at tee shot landing zones make accuracy the premium over distance. Links conditions require low ball flight, creativity, and strong course management.