The second major of the 2026 season arrives on Thursday 14 May at a course that hasn't hosted the PGA Championship in 64 years. Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, a Donald Ross gem just west of Philadelphia, becomes the stage for a storyline that has defined the first half of this golf season.
The PGA Championship odds project another two-horse race between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Scheffler, the reigning PGA champion, has a 17% chance to defend the Wanamaker Trophy. McIlroy, the reigning Masters champion, has seen his win probability improve to 11%.
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Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. All decimal odds are conversions from approximate market prices.
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Event | 108th PGA Championship |
| Dates | Thursday 14 May - Sunday 17 May 2026 |
| Venue | Aronimink Golf Club, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania |
| Par | 70 |
| Yardage | ~7,300 yards |
| Designer | Donald Ross |
| Estimated Purse | ~$19 million |
| 2025 Winner | Scottie Scheffler (Quail Hollow, -5 strokes victory) |
| Field Size | 154 golfers (156 after Truist/Myrtle Beach winners) |
Aronimink Golf Club is a Donald Ross-designed track in Newtown Square, Pa., that plays as a Par 70 at nearly 7,300 yards. The course last hosted the PGA Championship in 1962 and has hosted the 2003 Senior PGA and 2020 Women's PGA since then. The course hosted a PGA TOUR event more recently, when it served as the venue for the 2018 BMW Championship in the FedExCup Playoffs.
The key contextual facts for betting:
The limited recent data means bettors must lean more heavily on general statistical profiles (strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: around the green, proximity to the hole) rather than specific Aronimink history.
Approximate decimal odds converted from market prices. Check Duelbits Sportsbook for live prices.
| Player | Approximate Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | ~5.40 | 18.5% |
| Rory McIlroy | ~8.50 | 11.8% |
| Jon Rahm | ~14.00 | 7.1% |
| Cameron Young | ~14.00 | 7.1% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | ~13.00 | 7.7% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | ~26.00 | 3.8% |
| Xander Schauffele | ~19.00 | 5.3% |
| Brooks Koepka | ~40.00 | 2.5% |
| Justin Rose | ~44.00 | 2.3% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | ~56.00 | 1.8% |
Live prices available on Duelbits Sportsbook under Golf → PGA Championship.
Scottie Scheffler has been fetching short odds at all four majors for nearly two years, and that hasn't changed in 2026. The World No. 1 lapped the field a year ago, winning by five shots at Quail Hollow Club, and he's finished inside the Top 10 four other times since his PGA Championship debut in 2020.
Scheffler finished second at both the Masters and this past week's RBC Heritage. His form is exceptional even without a 2026 win, multiple top-5 finishes and a statistical profile that remains elite across all strokes-gained categories.
Scheffler's case for Aronimink rests on his approach play and putting accuracy on undulating greens, both areas where he leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained. Donald Ross courses expose weakness in iron play, and Scheffler has none. The shorter-par-5-fewer format suits a player who doesn't need eagle opportunities to dominate a leaderboard.
The case against: At ~5.40 he represents fair value but not generous value. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favourite. But Scheffler's record at this event, T10, T5, T4, T4 in his last four PGA Championships, plus the 2025 win, makes him the strongest statistical choice in the field.
Verdict: Back at a stake appropriate to his price. The most likely winner.
McIlroy, the reigning Masters champion, is looking for the second leg of the season grand slam as he bids to become the first player to win both the Masters and PGA Championship in the same season since Tiger Woods in 2000.
McIlroy has twice won the Wanamaker Trophy (2012, 2014) and has recorded T12, T7, and T8 finishes in his last three PGA Championships before 2026. His Masters win, his second consecutive Green Jacket, has him in the best sustained form of his life.
The back-to-back Masters champ finished T47 in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last year despite entering the week as a popular choice at a course he's won on many times before. That result is the caution note, McIlroy's PGA Championship record at strong, specific course fits has been inconsistent.
The grand slam narrative creates additional psychological weight. Both in his favour (motivated) and potentially against (extra pressure on a specific week).
Verdict: ~8.50 represents genuine value for a player with two PGA titles, current Masters form, and the statistical quality to win on any Donald Ross layout. He's the best each-way play in the field.
The model projects a strong showing from Tommy Fleetwood, who has longer odds at +2500. The 2025 Tour Championship winner is still looking for his first major win. He's in strong form this season, recording four top-10 finishes.
I'm rushing out to invest in Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 PGA Championship. His putting has been inconsistent, but otherwise his metrics are strong, including ranking first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approaching the green.
The course fit argument for Fleetwood at Aronimink is compelling. A Donald Ross design that rewards approach play above all else — and Fleetwood is currently the best approach player on tour by strokes gained metrics. If his putting holds, the course is set up for exactly his style.
Four top-10 finishes in 2026. First on tour in SG: Approach. A course that rewards precisely that skill. At 26.00, this is the best value outright in the field.
Verdict: Outstanding value bet. Recommended as the standout outright pick of the week.
Brooks Koepka has five major championship titles to his credit, and three of them have come at the PGA, with victories in 2018, 2019 and 2023. He's quietly put together a pretty solid season, with top-20s in four of his last five stroke play tourneys.
Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times (18/1, 10/1, and 20/1). Koepka's pattern at the PGA Championship is impossible to ignore: he raises his game specifically for this event in a way that defies his general season form. Three wins from his last four appearances at this tournament (including a 2023 win) is an extraordinary record.
At ~40.00 decimal, the market is discounting his form concerns (solid but not elite in 2026) while ignoring a track record that is unmatched at this specific event.
Verdict: Each-way play at 40.00. His PGA Championship record is the best argument for any price this week.
Justin Rose won at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier in the campaign, and was T-3rd at the Masters. He has a win at the 2010 AT&T National and runner-up in a playoff at the 2018 BMW Championship, both at Aronimink.
Rose is 45 years old and many would have written him off, except he's already won in 2026 (Farmers Insurance) and finished T3 at the Masters. At Aronimink specifically, his record is the best of any player in the field: one win, one runner-up.
I don't love that he's made a golf clubs company change as he approaches a major, but I can't look past his stellar course history.
Verdict: Small each-way stake at ~44.00. His course history is the unique factor, no other contender has his specific Aronimink record.
Tyrrell Hatton has really stepped up his game at the majors recently. The Englishman has posted four top-20s in the last five major championships, including a T-4th at the 2025 U.S. Open and T-3rd at the Masters last month.
Hatton is one of the most under-backed players at major championships given his consistent major form. A T3 at the 2026 Masters and a 56.00 price makes this worth a small outright position.
Verdict: Speculative longshot play at ~56.00. Major form justifies attention.
One major surprise the model is calling for: it projects that DeChambeau barely cracks the top 5 despite being one of the early favorites. DeChambeau missed the cut at the 2026 Masters and then struggled mightily in Mexico City two weeks ago, falling 16 shots behind the lead before withdrawing with wrist discomfort. He has recorded three straight top-five finishes at the PGA Championship, but has also missed the cut twice and finished outside the top 30 two other times at this event.
The wrist discomfort withdrawal in Mexico is the critical data point. Unknown injury status heading into a major is the most reliable fade signal available. At 13.00 he's priced as a top-three contender, that price assumes full health. Avoid until injury news is confirmed.
Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times. With that said, we've also seen massive longshots win over the last 20 years, including Phil Mickelson in 2021 (200/1) and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (150/1).
| Player | Market | Approx. Odds | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | Outright Win | ~26.00 | #1 SG: Approach, 4 top-10s in 2026, course suits his style |
| Rory McIlroy | Outright Win / Each-Way | ~8.50 | Two-time PGA winner, Masters form, grand slam motivation |
| Brooks Koepka | Each-Way | ~40.00 | Three PGA Championship wins, solid season form |
| Justin Rose | Each-Way | ~44.00 | Best course history in the field (win + runner-up at Aronimink) |
| Scottie Scheffler | Win | ~5.40 | Defending champion, world #1, approach play elite |
For a deeper look at golf betting strategy, including how to use the Kelly Criterion to size stakes on longshots like Fleetwood and Rose, see our Kelly Criterion guide.
Bet on all PGA Championship markets at Duelbits Sportsbook, outrights, top-5/10/20 finishes, round leaders, and head-to-head player matchups.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Check Duelbits Sportsbook for live prices.
When and where is the PGA Championship 2026? Thursday 14 May - Sunday 17 May 2026 at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. First time hosting the PGA Championship since 1962.
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 PGA Championship? Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and world number one at approximately 5.40 decimal. Rory McIlroy is second favourite at approximately 8.50.
Who won the 2025 PGA Championship? Scottie Scheffler won at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte by five shots, his fourth career major championship.
What is the course like at Aronimink Golf Club? A Donald Ross-designed Par 70 at nearly 7,300 yards. Premium on approach play, challenging undulating greens. Limited modern tour history, Justin Rose won here in 2010 and finished runner-up in 2018.
Is Rory McIlroy chasing the Grand Slam at the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes. McIlroy won the 2026 Masters and arrives seeking the second leg of what would make him only the second player in history to win the Masters and PGA Championship in the same year (after Tiger Woods in 2000).
What is the prize money for the 2026 PGA Championship? The 2026 purse has not been officially confirmed. The 2025 total prize pool was $19 million, with Scheffler claiming $3.42 million for his victory.
Who are the key longshots at the 2026 PGA Championship? Tommy Fleetwood at ~26.00 (four top-10s in 2026, number one in SG: Approach), Brooks Koepka at ~40.00 (three PGA wins), Justin Rose at ~44.00 (outstanding Aronimink course history).
Where can I bet on the PGA Championship 2026? All markets are available on Duelbits Sportsbook under Golf → PGA Championship. Markets include outright winner, top-5/10/20 finish, round leaders, and head-to-head matchups.
