Welcome to this week's PREDICT picks, where we break down the most exciting prediction markets available on Duelbits Predict. The world is on edge. Trump issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants, sending Bitcoin crashing from $75,000 to $68,000 over the weekend before bouncing back to around $70,500 on Monday after the deadline was extended. Oil prices surged toward $101 per barrel as the Strait, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, remains effectively closed.
Against this volatile backdrop, the UEFA World Cup 2026 playoff semi-finals take place on Thursday with Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Denmark, and Wales all fighting for the last four European spots at this summer's tournament. PREDICT has loaded up with new Bitcoin price markets, Trump weekly speech picks, Joe Rogan content markets, and the ongoing Iran conflict saga. Let's dive in.
This is one of the biggest nights in international football. Eight single-leg knockout matches will decide which nations advance to the World Cup playoff finals on March 31st, with the four winners booking their tickets to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
The fixtures: Italy vs Northern Ireland, Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine vs Sweden, Poland vs Albania, Turkey vs Romania, Slovakia vs Kosovo, Denmark vs North Macedonia, and Czechia vs Republic of Ireland. Seven of the eight matches kick off at 7:45pm GMT, with Turkey vs Romania starting earlier at 5pm.
Italy, the four-time World Cup winners aiming to avoid a catastrophic second missed tournament in a row, are the highest-ranked side in the playoffs. Ukraine's match against Sweden carries enormous emotional weight, while Poland and Turkey are favored to advance from their respective paths.
For traditional match odds and in-play betting on all World Cup qualifiers, check out Duelbits Sportsbook.
Market: UEFA World Cup Qualifiers Specials - Thursday (8 matches)
That's roughly 2.7 goals per match across eight knockout games where everything is on the line. The pressure of single-leg elimination tends to produce tight, cagey affairs — but when goals come, they come in floods.
Market: 7:45pm UTC Qualifiers (7 matches)
With single-leg knockouts, extra time and penalties are very much in play. These markets could deliver serious value.
Market: How many World Cup Qualifiers will go to Extra Time?
The "2" bracket at 3.25 is the favorite. With eight matches and several that could be very tight, Wales vs Bosnia, Czechia vs Ireland, Slovakia vs Kosovo, two matches going beyond 90 minutes feels like a fair expectation.
Market: How many will go to Penalties?
"1 penalty shootout" at 2.40 is the strongest value play. Penalty drama and World Cup qualification, few things in football are more intense.
Bitcoin is trading around $70,000-$71,000 after one of the most volatile weeks in its history. Over $240 million in crypto positions were liquidated within the first hour of Trump's Hormuz ultimatum, and the total crossed $1 billion over the following 24 hours. Analysts at Wintermute said Bitcoin could test the $74,000–$76,000 range if oil prices stabilize, but a pullback toward the mid-$60,000s is possible if diplomacy breaks down.
PREDICT has launched several fresh Bitcoin markets this week:
Market: Will Bitcoin hit $60K or $80K first?
A perfect coin flip. With BTC around $70,500, this is essentially asking: does the Iran situation resolve (bullish) or escalate (bearish)? The answer depends almost entirely on geopolitics.
Market: Bitcoin price at end of 2026?
The market is pricing a wide distribution reflecting genuine uncertainty. The $60K-$75K range carries the most implied probability.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit before March 31?
How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? - Above $99,999: 2.50 / Above $119,999: 4.50 / Above $149,999: 8.50
How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? - Below $60,000: 1.40 / Below $50,000: 1.65 / Below $40,000: 3.00
Bitcoin cross $100K again? - Before April: 26.00 / Before July: 5.00 / Before January 2027: 2.38
Bitcoin outperform Gold? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.33. Oil prices have surged more than 60% this year, making gold the safe haven of choice.
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? - Yes: 15.00 / No: 1.03
The Iran conflict remains the single biggest driver of global markets. On March 20, the U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the sale of roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian crude stranded at sea, then two days later Trump issued his power plant ultimatum. Monday brought another reversal: Trump posted that strikes would be postponed for five days, citing "very good and productive conversations," though Iran denied any talks had taken place.
US x Iran ceasefire by…? - March 31: 3.75 / April 15: 2.30 / April 30: 1.80 / June 30: 1.40
US forces enter Iran by…? - March 31: 5.00 / April 30: 1.80 / December 31: 1.50
US invade Iran before 2027? - Yes: 1.91 / No: 1.91. Now a genuine coin flip, a dramatic shift from earlier in the year.
Iranian regime fall before 2027? - Yes: 2.50 / No: 1.50
Iranian regime fall by June 30? - Yes: 4.00 / No: 1.25
Reza Pahlavi lead Iran? - Yes: 5.00 / No: 1.15
US-Iran nuclear deal? - Before April: 9.00 / Before August: 2.50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? - Yes: 2.10 / No: 1.66
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by…? - March 31: 7.00 / April 30: 1.91
Israel strike on Yemen by…? - March 31: 4.00 / June 30: 1.50
How high will WTI oil get by year-end? - $130+: 1.80 / $150+: 3.20 / $180+: 5.50. Goldman Sachs sees Brent averaging $110 through March and April, with a worst-case scenario of $135.
With the Iran ultimatum, World Cup qualifiers, and political chaos, Trump's weekly speech market is loaded.
Market: What will Trump say this week? (March 23-29)
"Khamenei" at 2.75 is solid value with the Iran situation dominating every news cycle. "Chuck Norris" at 3.40 is the wildcard pick of the week, there's even a dedicated market for it.
Will Trump say "Chuck Norris" this week? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.36
Trump cabinet member out by March 31? - Yes: 1.20 / No: 4.33. Heavily favored to happen.
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? - Lori Chavez-DeRemer: 5.00 / Tulsi Gabbard: 5.50 / Susie Wiles: 5.50 / Pam Bondi: 7.00
Market: What will be said on the first JRE episode? (March 23-29)
"Oil" at 1.30 is excellent value, with WTI at $101 and every conversation touching on energy prices, this is practically a lock.
The Champions League quarter-final draw is set. PREDICT has forward-looking UCL markets:
Will any UCL quarter-final tie have 10+ goals on aggregate? - Yes: 2.75 / No: 1.50. Four of the eight Round of 16 ties produced 10+ aggregate goals, so this trend could continue.
Will an English team win the UCL? - Yes: 2.70 / No: 1.45
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% at last week's meeting. Markets are now seriously pricing in the odds of an imminent US rate hike, a far cry from weeks ago when the debate was about how many cuts there would be.
Number of rate cuts in 2026? - Exactly 0: 4.50 / Exactly 1: 4.33 / Exactly 2: 4.33 / 8 or more: 17.00
US federal law banning sports betting on prediction markets? - Yes: 6.00 / No: 1.12
