Welcome to this week's PREDICT picks, where we break down the most exciting prediction markets available on Duelbits Predict. The Iran war has entered its second month and the world is counting down to April 6th, Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pausing strikes on power plants until April 6, 2026, at 8 PM Eastern Time. Meanwhile, tonight delivers the World Cup playoff finals as Italy, Sweden, Turkey, and Denmark fight for the last four European spots at the 2026 tournament. SpaceX's IPO is confirmed, the NFL Draft approaches, and Bitcoin swings between $67,000 and $75,000 as traders price every geopolitical headline in real time.
Tonight's the night. Four single-leg finals will decide which nations join the 48-team field at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. All four matches kick off at 20:45 CET: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy (Zenica), Sweden vs Poland (Solna), Kosovo vs Turkey (Pristina), and Czechia vs Denmark (Prague).
Italy, the four-time World Cup winners, are the highest-ranked team in the playoffs and will be immensely motivated to avoid missing a third successive World Cup. They beat Northern Ireland 2-0 in the semis. The Sweden-Poland final will be defined by the battle between Gyökeres and Robert Lewandowski. Kosovo, who only began playing international football in 2014, pulled off a remarkable 4-3 upset of Slovakia to reach their first-ever playoff final.
For traditional match odds and in-play betting, check out Duelbits Sportsbook.
Market: UEFA World Cup Qualifiers Specials - Tuesday (4 matches)
Four knockout finals with World Cup places at stake, expect passion, tension, and cards. The 19.5 cards line at 2.10 is tempting given the emotional stakes.
How many will go to Extra Time? - 0: 3.40 / 1: 2.25 / 2: 3.80 / 3: 13.00
How many will go to Penalties? - 0: 1.80 / 1: 2.60 / 2: 9.00
Thursday's semis produced two matches that went to extra time and penalties, Bosnia beat Wales on pens (4-2), and Czechia beat Ireland on pens (4-3). With that precedent, the "1 penalty shootout" at 2.60 offers solid value.
With qualification being decided, PREDICT has launched comprehensive squad selection markets:
Will Iran compete at the 2026 World Cup? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.00. Despite the ongoing war, Iran qualified automatically through the Asian confederation. The question is whether FIFA or the geopolitical situation prevents them from participating.
Will Neymar play at the 2026 World Cup? - Yes: 2.00 / No: 1.80
England squad highlights: Harry Kane (1.02), Bukayo Saka (1.03), Cole Palmer (1.05), Jude Bellingham (1.11), Phil Foden (1.20), Marcus Rashford (1.25), Harry Maguire (1.40), Trent Alexander-Arnold (2.50), Luke Shaw (3.00).
Brazil squad highlights: Casemiro (1.05), Bruno Guimarães (1.05), Estêvão Willian (1.20), Endrick (1.20), Neymar (2.00), Richarlison (2.00), Gabriel Jesus (5.00).
This is the single biggest event on the global calendar this week. Trump said he's extending the pause at the request of the Iranian government, noting "talks are ongoing" and "going very well". But Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal and laid out its own five-point counteroffer that would give Tehran control over the Strait of Hormuz, likely a non-starter for Washington.
Israel said it killed the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's navy, Commodore Alireza Tangsiri, who was responsible for bombing operations blocking ships from crossing the Strait. Pakistan says it will host US-Iran talks soon, though Iran denies direct negotiations are underway.
The stakes could not be higher. If the deadline passes without a deal, Trump has threatened to destroy Iran's power plants.
US x Iran ceasefire by…? - April 7: 7.00 / April 15: 3.50 / April 30: 2.50 / May 31: 1.91
US forces enter Iran by…? - March 31: 12.00 / April 30: 1.40 / December 31: 1.25
US invade Iran before 2027? - Yes: 1.45 / No: 2.75. The odds have shifted dramatically, a full invasion is now priced as more likely than not.
Iranian regime fall before 2027? - Yes: 2.50 / No: 1.50
Trump declare war on Iran by April 30? - Yes: 12.00 / No: 1.02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by…? - April 30: 2.75 / May 31: 2.20 / June 30: 2.10. Trump compared a potential move on Kharg Island to the US's seizure of Venezuela's oil sector.
Will Trump visit Iran? - Before June 1: 15.00 / Before January 2027: 5.00
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.36. On 27 March, Brent crude increased to $114 per barrel after negotiations failed to produce a ceasefire and the IRGC declared the strait closed.
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by…? - March 31: 7.00 / April 30: 1.91
How high will WTI oil get by year-end? - $130+: 1.45 / $150+: 2.00 / $180+: 4.00. Oil markets have tightened dramatically with the $150 bracket now at 2.00.
How many countries will Israel strike in 2026? - 5: 2.60 / 4: 3.10 / 6: 8.00
SpaceX's IPO is confirmed, and PREDICT has a detailed market on the raise size.
Market: How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
SpaceX IPO before 2027? - Yes: 1.05 / No: 10.00. Essentially confirmed.
Market: What will Trump say this week?
"Epic Fury" at 1.10 and "Unlimited Ammunition" at 1.18 suggest wartime rhetoric is expected to dominate. "April Fool" at 2.75 is a fun play, Trump loves to comment on the calendar.
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? - Lori Chavez-DeRemer: 1.40, now the overwhelming favorite.
The 2026 NFL Draft approaches, and PREDICT has combo specials:
Market: NFL Draft 2026 Specials
Who will be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? - Caleb Williams: 1.30 / Drake Maye: 2.80 / Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4.00
Will Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce be married in 2026? - Yes: 1.20 / No: 4.33. Heavily favored.
Where will the wedding occur? - Rhode Island: 1.91 / New York: 1.91 / Pennsylvania: 15.00
Market: Mohamed Salah next club?
Market: Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
GTA VI trailer before May? - Yes: 2.75 / No: 1.40
Next CEO of Apple? - John Ternus: 2.00 / Craig Federighi: 2.75
Next James Bond? - Callum Turner: 2.00 / Jacob Elordi: 3.75
Claude 5 released by…? - April 30: 3.50
Harvey Weinstein prison time? - 20-30 years: 3.75 / No Prison Time: 2.75
AFCON reversal: Will Senegal win the appeal? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.40
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before 2027? - Yes: 2.20 / No: 1.62
2028 Presidential Election? - J.D. Vance: 3.20 / Gavin Newsom: 4.50
